We’re reading Sifry’s Alerts about how many blogs there are and how many can there be, and the total population of the Earth, and whether Technorati wants Martians, Venusians, and other ET’s to claim their blogs. It’s really just a fog to me.
We notice that not one of the conversants, neither the original author or any commenters, have mentioned MySpace in this special way: all those kids are going to grow up, step by step. And one of the steps will be to create: A Real Blog.
So what does that mean? Let me think….
Well, let’s ask someone else for their opinion, or, here’s a first at Suppositious, get some facts. Well, a fact, then start supposin’.
Fact: 4.6×10 to the seventh unique visitors to MySpace in June. That’s from Nielsen//Netratings. If only ten percent of those follow through with, for instance, WordPress when they grow up and move out of the MySpace/old-AOL mindset, that means that Dave Winer will get over whelmed with 5 million new users, making and abandoning blogs like little kittens in cardboard boxes. Or rabbits on Barwon Downs, if you’re Aussie.
So the blog might really be the inheritor of the radio talk show phenom (as they say in BillBoard and Variety). Think about this carefully. It’s the next action of the (typical? out of 50,000,000?) MySpace user that’s important now. And I hope they all go over to Sifry‘s house for Kool-Aid. ‘Cause he loves the little buggers, don’t he?
Meanwhile, there’s this:
Suppositious has read an entry in the Snipperoo Blog with a great title: “Will MySpace eat its young?”. Their comments are interesting: widget strain’s bad, and they cite David Stern‘s guest blog at Silicon Beat – he says that it’s good but maybe difficult to ‘siphon off’ (his phrase) MySpace users.
And that’s all ok, but didn’t Suppositious make it clear that the model is NOT eBay or M networks (don’t know that well, but, see, that’s what ‘Suppositious’ means). The proper model is …. (ready?) (set?) AOL! (Yeah, we all know what LOL and all that means: read that, typed that.) And while we’re waiting for the applause to start, Suppositious is gonna try and call Dick Parsons and dress him down for not letting AOL BE the children’s network. It was all set up at one point. You couldn’t get on the *real* internet no matter what you did.
So now it’s all free or something and the central advantage of AOL’s insularity is gone. Gone, gone, gone. Next question: should MySpace start insulating? First guess: Yes! Second: Naw. Third: …